Wale Drops #1: The year 2024 in Web3
New projects, new marketplaces, new metas. The year 2024 will bring a lot of changes to the Web3 space. Let's dive into the most important topics of 2024 to prepare for what's to come.
2023 has brought many changes to our space.
New NFT collections were born. Old projects made a comeback. Some of the top projects of 2022 were only a shadow of their former selves at the end of 2023.
At the same time, we have seen an unprecedented shift in the power dynamics of NFT marketplaces.
We have seen creators go from zero to one hundred, and others fall from grace.
The question of all questions is now: What awaits us in the Web3 space in 2024?
Let's take a look at the most important aspects:
1. Metas
It came almost out of nowhere, but then suddenly dominated everything at the end of 2023: Web3 gaming.
This trend could continue in 2024.
Gaming is not only one of the areas in which the core Web3 community is active, but also perhaps the area that has the greatest chance of attracting and onboarding new people.
The benefits of NFTs, of blockchain, can hardly be understood as well in any other area as in gaming.
Ownership of in-game assets.
Free transfer between different games.
Play-to-earn.
All of these concepts demonstrate a few of the key purposes of blockchain technology.
But Web3 gaming will not be the only meta that will be with us in 2024.
Recently we have seen a shift from "holders" to real "shareholders".
The Plague started offering holder shares in the company behind it before Christmas.
Rektguy followed up this week.
If you want to learn more about it, I summarized the concept in a thread this week:
https://twitter.com/waleswoosh/status/1742153817615908984
And even though it's unlikely that the really big Web3 companies like Yuga Labs will follow this model, it's still an interesting case study.
And I think that even more "smaller" companies will explode such models.
Last but not least, I am convinced that 2024 will also be the year of token drops.
Many projects have been surrounded by token rumors for a long time: Pudgy Penguins, 0N1, Mocaverse, Azuki, DeGods etc.
I am sure that some projects will take this leap in 2024, especially if broader crypto continues to do so well.
2. Blockchains
2023 brought us Ordinals.
Solana also made a comeback towards the end of the year.
Even though Ordinals had a high in the middle of 2023, Ethereum was able to defend its position as the #1 blockchain for digital collectibles in this year.
But what will it look like in 2024?
Solana NFTs have great momentum, on the one hand because some highly successful collections have emerged with projects like MadLads and Claynosaurz filling the gap left by DeGods and y00ts when they migrated to Ethereum in the middle of the year.
On the other hand, the momentum of Solana NFTs can also be attributed to the comet-like comeback of $SOL, which is up almost 800% in the last year.
Ethereum is struggling to compete with this momentum. Many of the flagship NFT projects on Ethereum had a tough 2023. Sure, there were big winners here too, with Pudgy Penguins at the forefront. However, the masses were not able to finish 2023 in a way that makes people particularly excited for 2024.
Ordinals however seem to be gearing up for another high, as a look at the trading volume shows:
With collections such as Ordinals Maxi Biz and most recently nodemonkes, Ordinals collections have also managed to gain a sustainable foothold in the broader Web3 and NFT space.
In addition to the three big players, there are also a large number of L2s and other blockchains that will be competing in 2024.
Especially if Web3 gaming remains a strong narrative. After all, gamers probably don't care which blockchain they are active on, as long as transactions are fast, cheap and secure.
3. Marketplaces
This multi-chain perspective will also pose new challenges for marketplaces.
In 2023 we have seen the further demise of Opensea and with Blur a new marketplace that has taken the Web3 space by storm.
My guess is that we will also see further major shifts in 2024.
Opensea will migrate to zero royatlies, a move that is seen as critical in the Web3 community. Without additional incentives, such as the long-awaited token drop, it will be difficult for Opensea to regain significant market share.
Blur has coped well with the end of the $Blur airdrop, with Blast people who trade, bid and lend on Blur's marketplace can now expect another incentive. 2024 will show how long Blur can play this game with incentives and continue to maintain the mechanisms that made the marketplace so successful in the first place.
My guess for 2024 is that another marketplace could surprise us: Magic Eden.
And I can see a few reasons for this:
Firstly, there is the partnership with Yuga Labs. In a pro-royalties move, Yuga will work together with Magic Eden. What will come of this is not yet clear, but if Yuga pulls collections like BAYC, MAYC and Otherside from other marketplaces to list them exclusively on Magic Eden, that would already be a significant grab for market share. After all, the Yuga Labs collections make up a large part of the total weekly trading volume:
It is also possible that other NFT collections could follow Yuga's lead. Pudgy Penguins, Azuki, Memeland, RTFKT, all currently miss out on a massive income through royalties. An incentive for teams that should not be underestimated.
Another big advantage I see with Magic Eden is that they are multi-chain oriented from the start. Solana, Ethereum, Polygon, Bitcoin - Magic Eden offers the widest range of digital collectibles across all major chains. Blur currently only offers Ethereum. Opensea offers more, but has little volume outside of Ethereum.
Or maybe things will turn out differently and a new marketplace will emerge, similar to what Blur has done in 2024.
Or perhaps we as a space will move in a completely different direction. Flooring Protocol delivered a different take on trading in 2023, which might become even more popular in 2024:
https://twitter.com/waleswoosh/status/1714257050534900134
Either way, an exciting 2024 awaits us here too.
4. Nothing stays the same
If you look at all this, you can become insecure.
If so much is changing, how can you choose the right path for yourself as a trader or creator?
The answer is simple: You can’t. The Web3 space is changing so quickly that it is impossible to predict with any certainty where we will be at the end of 2024.
2023 has shown us that there will be new projects that dominate the headlines.
That projects that are on top today can be in shambles by the end of the year.
That creators that have the most reach today could be irrelevant again by the end of 2024.
That a marketplace that dominates the space today may be desperately fighting for survival in a few months' time.
Nothing is certain.
But that's what makes Web3 so exciting, isn't it?
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2024 will definitely be a good yea